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Special Covid-19 BaR Update - 5.12.20

Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid©

The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. (Note: Several improvements are planned for the BaR. These changes will be made after the economy begins recovery.)

Insight: As reported on 5/12, small business optimism dropped to a recessionary level in April, and total vehicles sales fell to 8.8 million, which is less than half of the February sales. Fourteen indicators are now near or below the baseline. Six indicators will be updated on Friday, including consumer sentiment.


Data updates:  5/12: Small business optimism, 5/8: Temporary employment; 5/4 to 5/7: ISM non-manufacturing, unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, Credit Managers' Index, and yield curve spread; 5/1/: ISM manufacturing; 4/24: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (end of April); 
Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends
With the first seven April data updates, the MoC dropped below the baseline, confirming that the economy reached a recessionary level in April. Updated 5/8. Next update 5/15. To see previous tables go here.
Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average Through Mar '20; Updated 5/8/20
(See other business cycles)
The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man

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