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The Recession Might Come Early

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"The odds of a recession increased earlier this year when it became clear that inflation was not transitory and was in fact accelerating in the early months of 2022. Higher than expected inflation means that the Fed will have to squeeze monetary policy tighter and more rapidly, making it more likely that the economy will contract. As the economics team at Fannie Mae put it, a contraction is “the most likely path to meet the Federal Reserve’s objective given the current rate of wage growth and inflation.”

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